OML-11 Resumption Command View

Resumption sentiment closes the week at 64% bullish, up five points week-over-week. The move is driven by NUPRC's conditional field re-entry guidance for Phase 1 (Bomu, Afam/TNP interface) and NNPCL's opening of workover prequalification, which markets read as a hard capital signal rather than a political gesture.

Offsetting that, the social licence picture remains the binding constraint. A splinter MOSOP bloc has rejected the legitimacy of the Rivers State roundtable, and the Gbo Kabaari youth council has issued a 72-hour ultimatum on local hiring registers at Ebubu. Treat the sentiment gain as fragile and contingent on community-facing execution, not regulatory momentum.

Federal / NUPRC / HYPREP. Re-entry guidance issued with a 21-day integrity certificate condition. HYPREP's Lot 4 audit has slipped two weeks after contractor demobilisation — the single most consequential schedule risk to Ebubu.

Rivers State Government. The Governor is positioning as convener; the security council extended joint task force deployment along the Bomu corridor and is seeking operator cost-share.

NNPCL / NEPL & IOC partners. Prequalification is live with a 45% Ogoni-registered vendor threshold. NEPL integrity crews completed the Bomu Manifold B hydrotest; regulator witnessing is the remaining gate.

Ogoni & Eleme Leadership. Mainstream MOSOP reaffirms conditional support tied to HCDT funding triggers. The splinter bloc and youth councils are the volatility source. KAGOTE's endorsement of a technocratic HCDT slate is the most usable de-escalation lever available this week.

Organised Labour. PENGASSAN has issued a casualisation advisory — no strike notice. NUPENG's tanker branch signals cooperation on TNP evacuation logistics.

Political Class. A Senate upstream oversight visit is pencilled for September, and the Ogoni political caucus is pressing for a community equity carve-out that would add a layer to commercial close.

1. HCDT governance legitimacy. Competing claims over board composition are blocking Korokoro and Tai clusters more effectively than any technical constraint. 2. Litigation exposure at Yorla. Suit FHC/PH/CS/482 restrains preparatory works; a hostile ruling would set an adverse precedent for other blocks. 3. Remediation certification lag. HYPREP verification capacity is the critical path for Ebubu, not field readiness. 4. Access economics. Unbudgeted community access levies at Korokoro are inflating contractor mobilisation costs and eroding tender credibility.

- NUPRC witness attendance at the Bomu Manifold B hydrotest (high confidence). - Expiry of the Gbo Kabaari 72-hour hiring-register ultimatum — picketing risk at the Ebubu gate. - Mention date listing expected in FHC/PH/CS/482. - Rivers State roundtable participant list circulates; watch for splinter-bloc inclusion.

Do today: publish the Ebubu hiring register in-country before the ultimatum expires; it is the cheapest available de-escalation.

Do this week: back the KAGOTE technocratic HCDT slate publicly and tie it to a dated funding trigger.

Hold: all Yorla preparatory spend until counsel returns a read on the injunction's scope.

Watch: HYPREP verification contractor remobilisation — if it does not resume within seven days, re-sequence Phase 1 around Bomu and Afam only.